Bitcoin’s price was currently unable to break through the psychological resistance of $ 50,000 over the weekend and fell below $ 48,000 on March 6.
Currently, traders are looking at whether BTC / USD can break through $ 50,000 to continue the bull run. Conversely, a drop below recent lows below $ 46,000 will likely open the door to many new lower lows, then threaten a bull cycle that has been going for almost a year, at least in the short term and Mid-term.
Trader Rekt Capital has shown similar prices to watch. If BTC fails to hold the current threshold above $ 46,000, he expects Bitcoin to bottom out somewhere in the region of $ 38,000 to $ 45,000 despite having made higher lows in recent days.
A major factor likely to put downward pressure on prices now is upside whale activity. Data from CryptoQuant shows an increase in major transactions on the exchange as of March 6, although miner activity remains relatively low.
As shown in the chart below, the times when whales actively transferred money to the exchange in the past coincided with Bitcoin’s bearish movement on March 3-4.
Macroeconomic factors that influence Bitcoin
As reported, Bitcoin is also facing downward pressure from macroeconomic trends. The spike in 10-year US Treasury yields and especially bearish tech stocks are weighing on crypto prices as more investors flee risky assets.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar currency index or DXY has surpassed technical resistance, hitting its highest level since November 2020.
Analyst Michael van de Poppe points out that Bitcoin’s downtrend is still intact after the latest attempt to break $ 50,000 failed.
“This means that the trend is still down and weakening overall in the short term. $ 50,000 so far has been a must-see for Bitcoin ”.
However, Bitcoin, like gold, may soon be resting as DXY yields and bonds close to their own technical resistance levels.
Van de Poppe explains:
“I believe yields will peak relatively soon, including DXY. Both are in the resistance zone, which means we will get close to the top on these two aspects, but also soon a bottom is formed for Bitcoin and gold”.
“March has often been a bad month for markets and history can repeat itself. So on a macro level, we are still bullish on the cycle and are warming up to continue, despite the recent interest in bond yields”.