Analysis of Bitcoin’s price action from 2011 shows that the price of this coin could next lie in the range of $ 75,000 to $ 306,000, research from Kraken.
Based on the logarithmic growth curve connecting historical peaks and lows, a coin price of $ 75,000 will signal Bitcoin to fall into the overbought zone, marking the end of its current bull cycle.
“Based on previous cycles, Bitcoin will likely continue to gradually increase in price before eventually going parabolic and hitting resistance, which will signal the end of its fourth bull run. , ”The report stated.
Analysis of historical price rallies offers some even bolder predictions. Everything is equal, if BTC continues along its current growth curve and then enters a similar pullback as previous market crashes, then the next bottom will be around 30,000 dollars.
Based on this suggested bottom one might try to make a prediction about the next market top, depending on the degree of the pullback.
If Bitcoin were to turn 70% back in the current cycle, the coin’s price would have to reach a peak of $ 102,000 to hit the aforementioned $ 30,000 bottom.
Likewise, a 90% collapse would place the next peak at $ 306,000, while a 86% drop – the average pullback of previous market cycles – would imply an upcoming market high of $ 306,000. $ 221,000. Either way, the Kraken report states, history shows that Bitcoin is still far from the “top” in the market.
Going into historical data once again, the first quarter of 2021 proved to be the third best performing quarter of Bitcoin’s 12 years of existence, based on its percentage of return and annual volatility. .
Kraken research shows that March has historically been a bad month for Bitcoin, with the coin’s price going up only twice during this time period since it started trading. In the past, on average, March was 11% less than February’s growth.
The report also notes that Bitcoin is currently in a similar trend to Q1 2013 – the most efficient Q1 in the coin’s history. A 0.82 correlation between the two is an encouraging sign and could break the historical trend of BTC underperformance in March.
Bitcoin has recorded positive returns for five consecutive months up to the time of publication. It was a scene that was seen only once before – in 2017 during the period that led to that year’s parabolic bull run.